In science we trust? Public trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and accepting anthropogenic climate change

Abstract

One barrier to action on climate change is public trust in climate science, and projections made by climate scientists. However, climate science projections are rarely measured in public surveys. We designed survey questions based on two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections regarding global warming and coral reef decline. We gauge Australians’ trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, and explore how trust in climate science is associated with accepting anthropogenic climate change. A slim majority of Australian adults trust Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, with trust correlated positively with accepting anthropogenic climate change. While partisan divisions are extant in accepting anthropogenic climate change, partisan influences are attenuated substantially after controlling for trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, as trust in climate science mediates the influence of partisanship on the acceptance of anthropogenic climate change. A minority of those who accept anthropogenic climate change have low trust in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, viewing scientists’ computer models as unreliable, or believing climate scientists benefit from overstating the impact of climate change.