Displacement through development? Property turnover and eviction risk in Seattle

Abstract

Eviction is a powerful form of displacement that perpetuates and amplifies socioeconomic and racial inequalities through the rental housing market. Examining the relationship between evictions and property turnover through Neil Smith’s theories of gentrification and uneven geographical development, this article considers the argument that eviction provides a mechanism for property owners to facilitate displacement prior to property redevelopment and neighbourhood change. Models of property-level turnover in the city of Seattle reveal that evictions are more likely to occur at properties that are sold in the same year, properties where planned demolition or remodelling activity is imminent and buildings that have been recently constructed. Increased likelihood of eviction is also associated with a greater volume of remodelling and demolition permit applications filed in the surrounding neighbourhood, suggesting that evictions may be more likely to occur at the early stages of development-driven neighbourhood change. These findings highlight the multifaceted relationship between evictions and property turnover and illustrate the value of administrative microdata for displacement research.