Population density and SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: Comparing the geography of different waves in the Netherlands

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted public and scholarly debate about the relationship between infectious disease and the urban. Cities are considered contagious because they are hubs in (inter)national networks and contain high densities of people. However, the role of the urban and population density in the spread of pathogens is complex and is mediated by the wider bio-social environment. This paper analyses the role of population density in the outbreak of COVID-19 in the densely and highly urbanised context of the Netherlands. It compares the geography of the different phases in the epidemic and assesses when and where density plays a role. Using municipal data on the rate of infections and hospitalisations, this paper reveals that spatial patterns differ substantially in time, which does not appear to be simple diffusion. Using panel regressions, it is demonstrated that population density plays a role in those stages in which containment and mitigation measures were least strict, while in periods of lockdown other factors such as household size are associated with higher infection rates. It concludes that lockdowns may have greater effect in urban areas as key urban elements are temporarily cancelled out.