Searching for the Parallel Growth of Cities in China

Abstract

Based on the parallel growth implications of the four urban growth theories (endogenous growth theory, random growth theory, hybrid growth theory and locational fundamentals theory), this paper uses Chinese city size data from 1984 to 2006 and time-series econometric techniques to test for parallel growth. The results from various types of stationarity tests show that city growth is generally random. Conditioning on growth trend and structural change, certain groups of cities with common location-specific characteristics, such as a similar natural resource endowment or policy regime, grow parallel in the long run, suggesting that locational fundamentals may have a persistent impact on city growth.