Forced urbanisation: A cross-national assessment of the effects of intranational political violence on a nation’s largest cities

Abstract

This article offers a ‘first step’ toward understanding the consequences of intranational political violence on the growth of a nation’s largest cities. Theory and research from studies on forced migration and internal displacement are used to construct several hypotheses that assess the impact that various forms of intranational political violence have on the growth of major urban areas within the developing world. Hypotheses are tested using a cross-national time-series sample of 85 developing nations from 1974 to 2005. The results provide strong empirical evidence that various forms of intranational political violence are significantly related to population growth amongst a nation’s largest cities. Specifically, attacks on government personnel are associated with an increase in population growth among a nation’s largest cities. Violence targeting civilians are associated with decelerated growth in a nation’s largest city but increased growth in major secondary cities. Finally, increases in the intensity and duration of civil wars are associated with decreases in population among secondary cities but exhibit a curvilinear growth pattern in a nation’s largest city (i.e. an increase then decrease). It is argued that the findings are at least partially explained by the ‘spatial logics’ that arise from a given form of political violence. It is concluded that more attention should be given to studying the consequences of political violence on the urbanisation process for rapidly urbanising nations.