Bicycle Use in Germany: Explaining Differences between Municipalities with Social Network Effects

Abstract

This paper aims to account for important factors influencing bicycle use and focuses in particular on differences between 20 selected German municipalities with considerable variation in their bicycle mode share. Using data from the nation-wide survey Mobility in Germany 2002, a mode choice model for bicycling is developed. In an extension to previous research, social network or spillover effects as a measure of the city’s bicycling culture are also taken into account. These effects are modelled using an instrumental variable approach. It is shown that social network effects increase the probability of cycling for shopping and recreational trip purposes, but not for school, work or errands. Furthermore, it is found that cycling infrastructure matters only for shopping and errand trips. Finally, commuting trips by bicycle seem to be largely independent of any policy variables.