The Effect of Weather on Assault

Abstract

This paper examines the role of local weather conditions in explaining variations in assault, in sub-tropical Brisbane, Australia. It details the extent to which local variations in weather are important in shaping the necessary preconditions for assault to take place. Results suggest that higher daily temperatures are associated with an increased propensity for assault at the neighborhood level after controlling for seasonal effects. Assaults occur significantly less frequently in summer than in spring and there is a greater propensity for assaults to occur on weekends compared to weekdays. Neighborhood disadvantage, ethnic diversity, and the presence of risky facilities such bars, schools, or shops increased the propensity for assault above and beyond the effect of temperature. Findings are important in their capacity to isolate the effect of the prevailing local weather conditions whilst controlling for seasonal variations, land use, and the socio-economic and demographic context within which assaults took place.