The Road More Traveled: Evacuation Networks in the US and Japan

Abstract

When crisis strikes, where do evacuees go? This question affects how policymakers and first responders allocate their time, funds, and resources after disaster. While past research compared evacuation rates of cities within the same disaster, evacuation among different types of disasters remain under-examined. This mixed methods study compares evacuation patterns from 7,631 cities among 10 major disasters in the US and Japan between 2019 and 2020, combining social network analysis, modeling, and visualization. This study highlights that evacuation from some hazards is more alike than others; large, sprawling disasters, including some storms, fires, and power outages trigger both clustered and dispersed evacuation networks, while smaller, focused disaster result in mainly dispersed evacuation networks. Further, cities with similar levels of social capital tend to see greater evacuation between them. By uncovering the different shapes and drivers of evacuation networks across different disasters, scholars can clarify where evacuees go and which kinds of cities need additional support after crisis.