Signals, strongholds, and support: Political party protests in South Africa

Abstract

South African politics are in a period of transition: the dominant African National Congress (ANC) is in decline, support for opposition parties has been rising, and voters have been disengaging rapidly from the electoral process. As protest movements have become more common and more powerful, established political parties have increasingly led their own protests, often addressing the same issues that citizens rise up about. This phenomenon has been understudied but has important ramifications for the future of South African politics. This article addresses this gap in the literature, arguing that party-led protests can be interpreted as costly signals of credible commitments to address the very issues that citizens are upset about. In a time when established parties are losing support, they may turn to these costly protests to demonstrate their commitment to addressing the needs of the people. Using counts of party-led protests and riots as well as election outcomes in the 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 national elections, this article demonstrates that party-led protests primarily target stronghold municipalities. In doing so, they positively correlate with vote-shares during elections. This boon accrues primarily to the opposition parties, but not the incumbent ANC.