The disruption of an institutionalised and polarised party system: Discontent with democracy and the rise of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador

Author:

Perelló Lucas1,Navia Patricio2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Marymount Manhattan College, USA

2. New York University, USA

Abstract

Studies on party system collapse or individual-party breakdowns view programmatic inconsistency or convergence as necessary for abrupt party system change. In theory, a new or fringe contender can suddenly emerge and disrupt the party system under such circumstances. We test that claim by examining Nayib Bukele’s 2019 presidential election victory in El Salvador. With data from the AmericasBarometer, we estimate probit models and predictive margins to examine the individual-level determinants of disruption in an institutionalised and ideologically polarised party system. The empirical results reveal that Bukele won amid salient ideological differences between traditional parties and that critical views towards democracy fueled his core support. Therefore, we conclude that a significant disruption in an institutionalised party system can occur notwithstanding robust ideological differences between leading contenders. Critical attitudes towards democracy can represent a driving force behind a party system’s disruption.

Funder

ANID-Millenium Science Initiative Program

Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Political Science and International Relations

Reference36 articles.

1. AmericasBarometer (n.d.) AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) datasets home. Available at: http://datasets.americasbarometer.org/database/index.php?freeUser=true (accessed 26 March 2021).

2. The Salience of Ideology: Fifteen Years of Presidential Elections in El Salvador

3. Bukele N (2018) No respetan la vida, ni las leyes, ni la Democracia, ni la Constitución, ni el Estado de Derecho. No les importa ningún límite, ni la verdad, ni el debido proceso, ni el derecho del pueblo de elegir libremente en elecciones. Quieren el poder, a cualquier costo [twitter post], 3 June. Available at: https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1014197680388628481 (accessed 24 March 2021).

4. The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980–2010

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