Genetic variation supports a causal role for valproate in prevention of ischemic stroke

Author:

Mayerhofer Ernst123ORCID,Parodi Livia1234ORCID,Narasimhalu Kaavya123ORCID,Wolking Stefan5,Harloff Andreas6,Georgakis Marios K1237,Rosand Jonathan123,Anderson Christopher D1234

Affiliation:

1. Center for Genomic Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

2. Program in Medical and Population Genetics, Broad Institute, Cambridge, MA, USA

3. McCance Center for Brain Health, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

4. Department of Neurology, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

5. Department of Neurology and Epileptology, University Hospital Aachen, Aachen, Germany

6. Department of Neurology and Neurophysiology, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany

7. Institute for Stroke and Dementia Research, Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Munich, Germany

Abstract

Background: Valproate is a candidate for ischemic stroke prevention due to its anti-atherosclerotic effects in vivo. Although valproate use is associated with decreased ischemic stroke risk in observational studies, confounding by indication precludes causal conclusions. Aims: We applied Mendelian randomization to determine whether genetic variants that influence seizure response among valproate users associate with ischemic stroke. Methods: We derived a genetic score for valproate response using genome-wide association data of seizure response after valproate intake from the Epilepsy Pharmacogenomics Consortium. We then tested this score among valproate users of the UK Biobank for association with incident and recurrent ischemic stroke using Cox proportional hazard models. As replication, we tested found associations in an independent cohort of valproate users of the Mass General Brigham Biobank. Results: Among 2150 valproate users (mean 56 years, 54% females), 82 ischemic strokes occurred over a mean 12 year follow-up. Higher valproate response genetic score was associated with higher serum valproate levels (+5.78 µg/ml per 1 standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval (CI) (3.45, 8.11)). After adjusting for age and sex, higher valproate response genetic score was associated with lower ischemic stroke risk (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 SD 0.73, 95% CI (0.58, 0.91)) with a halving of absolute risk in the highest compared to the lowest score tertile (4.8% vs 2.5%, p trend = 0.027). Among 194 valproate users with prevalent stroke at baseline, a higher valproate response genetic score was associated with lower recurrent ischemic stroke risk (HR per 1 SD 0.53, 95% CI (0.32, 0.86)) with reduced absolute risk in the highest compared to the lowest score tertile (3/51, 5.9% vs 13/71, 18.3%, p trend = 0.026). The valproate response genetic score was not associated with ischemic stroke among the 427,997 valproate non-users ( p = 0.61), suggesting minimal pleiotropy. In 1241 valproate users of the Mass General Brigham Biobank with 99 ischemic stroke events over 6.5 years follow-up, we replicated our observed associations between the valproate response genetic score and ischemic stroke (HR per 1 SD 0.77, 95% CI (0.61, 0.97)). Conclusion: These results demonstrate that a genetically predicted favorable seizure response to valproate is associated with higher serum valproate levels and reduced ischemic stroke risk among valproate users, providing causal support for valproate effectiveness in ischemic stroke prevention. The strongest effect was found for recurrent ischemic stroke, suggesting potential dual-use benefits of valproate for post-stroke epilepsy. Clinical trials will be required in order to identify populations that may benefit most from valproate for stroke prevention. Data access statement: UK Biobank participant data are available after approval of a research proposal. The weights of the used genetic scores are available in the Supplemental Tables.

Funder

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Mü:nchen

National Institutes of Health

American Heart Association

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Neurology,Neurology (clinical)

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