What Are the Odds?

Abstract

A number of methodological techniques and theoretical propositions have been used in the extant literature on specialization/versatility. These various methodologies and theories have created an ongoing debate that has revealed several areas of focus that need to be addressed. The current study applies Moffitt’s (1993) taxonomy and uses a series of random effects logistic regression models to estimate the impact of a violent, property, drug, or other prior offense on the commission of a subsequent offense across different types of criminal careers. Specifically, we attempt to determine the odds a prior offense has on predicting a subsequent offense among four offender trajectories, controlling for various aspects of the criminal career and demographic characteristics. Findings suggest that the odds of committing any offense type over the life course are greater if the prior offense was of the same type. This relationship remains consistent across offender trajectories.