Assessments of Anticriminal Plans and the Prediction of Criminal Futures

Abstract

These notes place an important limitation on the conclusions drawn by Friesen and Andrews (1982) regarding the predictive validity of a measure of the inprogram self-regulation efforts of 42 young-adult probationers. In the earlier report, assessments of self-regulation were found to be reliable (interrater r(20) = .96) and they correlated with intake socialization scores ( r(42) = .38), and with reconvictions monitored from the start of probation to the end of three postprobation years ( r(42) = -.38). The present note shows that the predictive validity of the self-regulation scores was only evident among high-risk cases: The correlation was -.70 with the recidivism of 19 low-socialization cases compared with -.02 among 23 high-socialization probationers. The results are discussed in relation to the risk principle of case classification.