Assessing the Vulnerability of Endemic Colombian Amphibian Species to Climate Change in an Isolated Montane Ecosystem

Abstract

Background and Research Aims Climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation are the major threats to biodiversity. Montane amphibians are particularly sensitive to these threats. We address the vulnerability of the amphibian community in Colombia using a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) and prioritize amphibian species at risk of extinction and in need of conservation actions. Methods We completed two independent spatial analyses to assess species vulnerability in the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM), Colombia. First, we calculated the Area of Habitat and the percent of the Area of Habitat under protected area coverage for 19 species. We then examined the breadth of climatic space occupied by 16 species and how this space is predicted to shift under climate scenarios (RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) for 12 General Circulation Models for 2050. We combined these two analyses with trait data related to adaptive capacity, obtained from previous research, to create a combined (correlative-trait) CCVA. Results Our analysis reveals a large reduction in available climatic space under both RCP scenarios by 2050. Our CCVA identified eight high priority species, including three Atelopus species and five within the Serranobatrachus/Tachiramantis complex, with extreme reductions in available climate space under RCP 8.5. The SNSM endemic and range restricted species are at elevated risk of extinction under climate change scenarios, with many moving into a high-risk category of extinction under the RCP 8.5. Given its isolation, the endemic species of the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta (SNSM) are threatened by changing climates. Implications for Conservation The information provided in this manuscript used a vulnerability assessment to develop regional strategies for climate change adaptation and conservation. When possible, climate vulnerability must be incorporated into future adaptation and priority planning for the conservation of endemic, threatened montane amphibians, preferably via local management plans.