Computer prediction of cotton and sporting goods prices in e-commerce environment based on ARIMA model

Abstract

In the current society, e-commerce is enjoying extremely rapid development, with a goal of helping enterprises smooth their production process, management process and trade process. China has always been the center of world's garment industry, especially in the production sector of sportswear, in which it has become the world's sportswear production outsourcing center and an important market. In this paper, time series analysis method is used to analyze the weekly data of settlement price of common cotton price (unit: yuan/ton) from March 3rd, 2003 to May 7th, 2012 in China. ARIMA (2,1,3) model is established to fit and predict the future price of Chinese sportswear. The fitting results show that the prediction effect of the model is quite impressive, that in a short run, the settlement price of ordinary blended Cotton price will continue to rise. This result can provide certain reference for enterprises closely related to sportswear production enterprises, to seek profits and avoid disadvantages, and grasp the initiative of economic decision-making to win profits for enterprises.