Historical Distributions of Multiple Discoveries and Theories of Scientific Change

Abstract

After discussing the issues of validity and reliability in the measurement of multiple discoveries and their implications for testing alternative theories, we examine the mathematical assumptions underlying the Poisson distribution, and their correspondence to the theories. We find that a negatively contagious Poisson distribution is equally consistent with the observed distribution of grade of multiples, and since its basic assumptions are more consistent with our understanding of the discovery process, there are ample grounds for rejecting the alternative `chance' theory advanced by Simonton, among others. Lastly, we explore some elements of the Zeitgeist theory which appear to provide a more plausible interpretation of the phenomena, particularly regarding the role of communication in modern science, and report some findings in support of this approach.