Democracy and the Future of European Peace

Abstract

No region equals Europe in the history of war and genocide. The question of war or peace in Europe is thus not just a regional but also a global concern. Since 1945, however, Europe has been comparatively peaceful. Several factors which have been invoked to explain `the long peace' in Europe are discussed here: bipolarity, nuclear deterrence, displacement of war, interdependence, de-learning of war, a common ideology, uniting in the face of a common enemy, and democracy. While the relevance of nuclear deterrence cannot be dismissed in the case of the East-West conflict, stable democracy would seem to provide the most solid foundation for peace in Europe in the future. The peace-building functions of the European Union are mainly relevant to the extent that they contribute to the consolidation of the democratic system in new and vulnerable democracies. Today, the prospects for a lasting democratic peace in Europe are better than ever, but it will be some time before they extend to the whole continent, and the possibility of major reversals cannot be ruled out completely. A temptation may arise for democratic norms to be enforced by military means. However, the case for spreading democracy by force rests on very uncertain foundations.