The reconfiguration of the transnational power bloc in the crisis

Abstract

The current political conjuncture is analysed as a crisis of hegemony in the transnational power bloc. The previous hegemonic crisis of the 1970s lasted about 10 years before the neoliberal hegemonic project was firmly established. This new regime evolved in two stages: the first marked by the hegemony of transnational industrial capital; the second marked by the hegemony of finance, ending with the global financial crisis. The next regime will mainly be shaped by struggles along three lines of conflict within the transnational power bloc: between finance and productive capital; between ‘green’ and ‘black’ capital; and between the old industrialized countries and the emerging economies. Using patterns of political contestation and policy development as indicators of change in power relations, it is concluded: that finance is still part of the power bloc but no longer hegemonic; that green capital is gaining momentum but facing strong opposition; and that there has been some strengthening of the new powers but the situation is still unsettled. Transition to a green growth model, where productive capital from the North is hegemonic but with strengthened Southern capital, is a possibility but not the only one in this still open situation.