The Dynamics of Public Opinion toward European Integration, 1973-93

Abstract

What are the aggregate dynamics of public support for European integration in the 12 EU member states? And how can they be explained? Given that mass support for integration varies both across time and across countries, the article tests the proposition that both types of variation can be explained with the help of national economic conditions, timing of entry into the Union, and length of membership in it. Using aggregate Eurobarometer polls for the period between 1973 and 1993, we find that all three factors have significant impacts on support for a united Europe. However, the results also indicate that length of membership in the EU is somewhat more important than economic performance. The paper spells out some of the possible ramifications of these results.