Relationship between Overconfidence and Risky Behavior among Ship Crew

Abstract

Human factors are a primary cause of maritime accidents. This paper explores the relationship between risky behavior and overconfidence among members of a ship crew. Data on confidence and risky behaviors were collected through experiments carried out on a navigation simulator and an associated questionnaire. Contingency table analysis and chi-square test were then performed to clarify the relationships between these variables. The results indicated that both overconfidence and underconfidence were potential causes of risky behaviors among crew members; the type of risky behavior undertaken was also found to be related to both overconfidence and underconfidence. Levels of confidence varied with individual characteristics such as age and sailing experience. The major findings were as follows. Crew members aged 25 years or younger were more likely to be overconfident; crew members with less sailing experience were more likely to be either highly overconfident or underconfident; highly overconfident and underconfident crew members were more prone to involvement in collisions; skill-based risky behaviors were most associated with underconfidence; rule-based risky behaviors were more likely to be exhibited by highly overconfident or underconfident crew members; knowledge-based risky behavior was primarily observed in highly overconfident crew members. This paper fills a current research gap by identifying the individual characteristics that induce risky behaviors, which will be beneficial in enabling the maritime sector to develop targeted interventions to prevent maritime accidents.