Emerging Opportunities for Battery Swapping in the Electric Two-Wheeler Segment in India

Abstract

With greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mobility being inextricably linked, the Indian government has introduced a slew of policies to decarbonize transportation and transition toward electric mobility. Though electric vehicle penetration is currently at a nascent stage, India offers the world’s largest untapped market, especially in the two-wheeler (2W) segment. However, high upfront purchase costs, scarcity of charging-enabled parking spaces, and longer charging times have been the major challenges in accelerating electric two-wheeler (e-2W) adoption in India. Addressing these issues, battery swapping is an alternative fast refueling option that eliminates wait time for charging, makes better use of land, and promises increased available run time. This paper analyzes the status of e-2W adoption, their total cost of ownership (TCO), and the growth trajectory of e-2Ws in three different scenarios of sales penetration to estimate the battery capacity requirements for battery swapping by 2030. The TCO analysis suggests that e-2Ws are more economical for commercial than private usage because of their higher daily utilization; however, battery swapping makes e-2Ws economical even for private usage. By 2030, the cumulative number of e-2Ws is estimated to increase from 17.4 million with a 20% sales penetration of e-2Ws (pessimistic scenario) to 54.4 million with an 80% sales penetration (optimistic scenario). Noting the additional battery pack requirements for the battery-swapping option, India is estimated to require a staggering figure of 133–291 GWh, 75–162 GWh, and 42–91 GWh of battery capacities under the optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic sales scenarios respectively.