Comparing Methods for Generating a Two-Layered Synthetic Population

Abstract

Synthetic population is used in many transport models ranging from trip-based, hybrid trip, tour-based, and activity-based models. As mobility decisions depend on both individuals’ characteristics and family situation, generating a two-layered population that takes into account not only the individual level but also household level is essential. In the literature, three main categories of methods for two-layered population generation have been proposed. These categories are synthetic reconstruction (SR), combinatorial optimization (CO), and statistical learning (SL). SR and CO methods produce synthetic populations by means of replicating individuals, whereas SL methods generate a population following a joint probability estimation. However, selecting a generation process is not straightforward as it depends on input data and synthetic population characteristics. To the best of our knowledge, no clear methodology for selecting between these methods exists. The main objectives of this paper are to provide (1) a detailed description of the available methods, (2) a comparison between these methods, and (3) a decision-making procedure for selecting between these methods. The description and comparison of the methods relies on different criteria: marginals availability, sample size, number of potential attributes that can be handled, population size to generate, possibility of zero-cell problem, and so forth. The advantages and shortcomings of each method are illustrated, and method performance is assessed. The decision-making procedure is carried out through the proposal of a decision tree. Researchers and practitioners have now access to a comprehensive and unified framework to select the appropriate method depending on available data and features of their modeling purposes.