Analysis of Retrofit and Scrappage Policies for the Indian Road Transport Sector in 2030

Abstract

In India, the road transport sector contributed around 90% of total transport CO2 emissions in 2018. Air pollution from the road transport sector has detrimental effects on both air quality and human health. The policies implemented have a long-term impact on the amount of vehicle emissions and characteristics of fleet vehicles. The present study analyzes emissions from India’s road transport sector using the bottom-up activity approach model. Future vehicle stocks in India are projected up to 2030 using a hybrid growth model approach. Vehicle emissions of CO2, CO, particulate matter (PM), and NOx are analyzed for India's reference (2020) and projected years fleet (2030). The emissions from the projected fleet are subjected to different mitigation scenarios such as retrofit and scrappage policies to estimate the emission reduction potentials of these scenarios from the future fleet of India. The analysis of the study indicates that the retrofit policies are more effective in reducing vehicle emissions than the scrappage policies. Retrofit policies such as the advancement in emission norms (shift to Bharat Stage (BS)-VI from BS-IV), the increased share of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, and fuel efficiency (FE) improvements have reduced vehicle emissions significantly compared to the scrappage of old vehicles from the fleet. The low impact of scrappage policies is attributed to the projected fleet’s lower share of old vehicles (10–15%). While retrofit policies have a significant impact as they largely affect 85% to 90% of young vehicles (less than ten years of age) in 2030. A combination of both policies is suggested to control future fleet emissions. The study also conducts sensitivity analysis, which indicates a significant influence of the emission factors in the vehicle emission analysis and GDP growth rates in the vehicle fleet projection.