Perturbation of Residential Preferences by COVID-19 Shocks in the Greater Toronto Area

Abstract

This research investigates the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on residential preferences in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada, using a stated preference (SP) survey dataset. The study examines changes in relocation preferences and trends in the GTA after the Ontario government lifted the initial lockdown. The obtained choice data is then modeled using a mixed cross-nested logit model to find substitution patterns across regions and dwelling types, as well as explore residents’ preferences for different dwelling characteristics and the accessibility of their residence, including factors such as telecommuting options. The results reveal that the pandemic caused short-term residential dissonance, with residents tending to want to move to lower-density areas to relocate to their preferred dwelling type, emphasizing telecommuting as a key factor influencing residential relocation preferences. Housing qualities were prioritized over accessibility. The study also found heterogeneous behavior among GTA residents with regard to telecommuting as a factor in residential relocation. The study’s findings are relevant for planners and policymakers in anticipating the potential long-term pandemic-induced home relocation decisions and their impact on future household travel behavior, particularly with regard to telecommuting and accessibility.