Implication of Replacing the Federal and State Fuel Taxes with a National Vehicle Miles Traveled Tax

Abstract

A vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax is often proposed to replace fuel taxes for financing the nation’s highway and road network. In this paper, we investigate households’ driving response to driving cost changes depending on their vehicle choices. Using the empirical estimates, we simulate the vehicle usage, tax burdens, and total tax revenues generated under a possible nationwide revenue-neutral flat VMT tax. Our results confirm that, compared with the current gasoline tax, a revenue-neutral flat VMT tax can be a more stable tax revenue source. We estimate that a 50% increase in average miles per gallon would lead to a 28% decrease in the total revenues raised by the current gasoline tax, while the same amount of increase in fuel economy would increase the VMT tax revenues by 4.4 % (all relative to the 2009 baseline). In the meantime, we find no significant difference between the two types of tax in their total revenues, when the pre-tax gasoline prices fluctuate by different magnitudes. A VMT tax would be slightly more regressive than the gasoline tax, but the difference is negligible. Overall, our simulation shows that VMT tax could serve as a viable alternative to gasoline taxes.