Analysis of the Key Factors Influencing Automation Transformation in Container Terminals Based on the Dempster–Shafer Evidence Interval Method

Abstract

The steady growth of container volume and aggressive shipping alliances have intensified competition among terminals. With the rapid development and application of modern information and communication technology, automation is a great way to promote terminals’ sustainable development. The objectives of this study are to analyze the key factors influencing automation transformation and provide theoretical guidelines for implementing automation transformation. Based on the literature review, the main factors influencing the automation transformation of container terminals are characterized and analyzed. They are divided into four categories: technical feasibility, external promotion, self-constraints, and goals/demand. Thereafter, a novel multi-source data fusion method, the Dempster–Shafer evidence interval method (DSIM) based on Dempster–Shafer evidence theory and interval value, is proposed to fuse conflicting and uncertain opinions among experts. This method is effective for expert opinion elicitation. Using DSIM, the key factors’ relative importance and their relationship are examined based on the opinions of experts in China. The results show that technical feasibility is the most important factor category in the foundation of automation transformation. Finally, a generalized planning framework for constructing automation transformation schemes is established, providing references and suggestions for terminals’ decision-makers.