How Many Trajectories Are Needed to Develop Facility- and Speed-Specific Vehicle-Specific Power Distributions for Emission Estimation? Case Study in Beijing

Abstract

Vehicle-specific power (VSP) distributions, or operating mode (OpMode) distributions, are one of the most important parameters in VSP-based emission models, such as the motor vehicle emission simulator (MOVES) model. The collection of second-by-second vehicle activity data is required to develop facility- and speed-specific (FaSS) VSP distributions. This then raises the problem of how many trajectories are needed to develop FaSS VSP distributions for emission estimation. This study attempts to investigate the adaptive sample size for developing robust VSP distributions for emission estimations for light-duty vehicles. First, vehicle activity data are divided into trajectories and categorized into different trajectory pools. Then, the uncertainty of FaSS VSP distribution caused by sample size is analyzed. Further, the relationship between VSP distribution sample size and emission factor uncertainty is discussed. The case study indicates that error in developing FaSS VSP distributions decreases significantly with increased sample size. In different speed bins, the sample size required to develop robust FaSS VSP distributions and estimate emission factors is significantly different. In detail, in each speed bin, for a 90% confidence level, 30 trajectories (1,800 s) are enough to develop robust FaSS VSP distributions for light-duty vehicles with the root mean square errors (RMSEs) lower than 2%, which means errors in calculating fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are lower than 5%. However, 35 trajectories (2,100 s) are needed to estimate emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOX), and hydrocarbons (HC) with an estimation error lower than 5%.