Will the Order Be Canceled? Order Cancellation Probability Prediction Based on Deep Residual Model

Abstract

Online ride-hailing is gradually becoming one of the indispensable travel modes for people. Online ride-hailing platforms receive tens of thousands of taxi travel orders every day. However, some orders are canceled by the user after the driver answers. User cancellation of orders will disrupt the regular operation of the taxi platform, reduce the efficiency and income of drivers on the online ride-hailing platform, and affect the ride experience of other users. To capture the relationship between the cancellation probability of online taxi orders and users, we first analyze the factors that affect users’ cancellation of online taxi orders. We find that the cancellation probability of online ride-hailing orders is highly correlated with the travel time of the online taxi, the distance between vehicle and passengers, road congestion conditions, and alternative transportation resources around the passengers. Second, a deep residual network-based ride-hailing order cancellation probability prediction model (DeepOCP) is designed to predict the probability of a user canceling an answered online-hailing order. Finally, the Didi Chengdu Express public data set is used to test the model’s effectiveness. This paper is the first study to use a deep-learning model to predict the cancellation probability of online ride-hailing orders.