Evaluating Relationships between Perception-Reaction Times, Emergency Deceleration Rates, and Crash Outcomes using Naturalistic Driving Data

Abstract

Perception-reaction time (PRT) and deceleration rate are two key components in geometric design of highways and streets. Combined with a design speed, they determine the minimum required stopping sight distance (SSD). Current American Association of Highway Transportation Officials (AASHTO) SSD guidance is based on 90th percentile PRT and 10th percentile deceleration rate values from experiments completed in the mid-1990s. These experiments lacked real-world distractions, and so forth. Thus, the values from these experiments may not be applicable in real-world scenarios. This research evaluated (1) differences in PRTs and deceleration rates between crash and near-crash events and (2) developed predictive models for PRT and deceleration rate that could be used for roadway design. This was accomplished using (1) genetic matching (with Rosenbaum’s sensitivity analysis) and (2) quantile regression. These methods were applied to the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 (SHRP2) Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) data. The analysis results indicated that there were differences in PRT and deceleration rates for crash and near-crash events. The specific estimates were that, on average, drivers involved in crash events took 0.487 s longer to react and decelerated at 0.018 g’s (0.58 ft/s2) slower than drivers in equivalent near-crashes. Prediction models were developed for use in roadway design. These models were used to develop tables comparing existing SSD design criteria with SSD criteria based on the results of the predictive models. These predicted values indicated that minimum design SSD values would increase by 10.5–129.2 ft, dependent on the design speed and SSD model used.