Development of Joint Stated-Preference-off-Revealed-Preference Model for Shanghai Commute Mode Choices in Response to Parking Fee Management

Abstract

Facing challenges in parking demand-and-supply imbalance and severe road traffic congestion during peak periods in Shanghai, in this paper we develop an SP-off-RP (stated-preference-off-revealed-preference) choice model to analyze relations between parking fee and commute mode choices based on survey data collected there. The survey questionnaire collects information about travelers’ daily commute, travel choices in the SP context, and personal socioeconomic and demographic attributes. The road network and public transportation network data are also used for model development. The model includes three main travel modes: car, public transit, and non-motorized mode. Variables that significantly influence mode choice and the reasons behind it are discussed, including the parking fee, the level-of-service (LOS) of the three modes, and socioeconomic and demographic variables. In the process of model development, a random sample of full-mode commute trips in Shanghai is integrated to improve model precision. The study reveals that the new random disturbance in the SP context is relatively large. The direct elasticity of the parking fee is estimated at −0.85, which means that when the parking fee increases by 10%, the average probability of choosing a private car for the commute will decrease by 8.5%. It is also found that transit LOS improvements have potential to reduce auto use in Shanghai. The study provides references on parking pricing as an alternative policy for travel demand management in Shanghai.