Impacts of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Travel Demand and Emissions in California

Abstract

The emerging connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology is likely to bring significant changes to the transportation world. This study helps understand how the anticipated emergence of CAVs will affect various aspects of society and transportation, including travel demand, vehicle miles traveled, energy consumption, and emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. We design a set of future system configurations under the California Statewide Travel Demand Model framework to simulate scenarios for the deployment of passenger CAVs in California by 2050. These scenarios consider the ownership and operational type (e.g., private and shared) of CAVs, as well as additional policies such as pricing and the use of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) to curb potential impacts. The scenarios are: 0. Baseline (no automation); 1. Private CAV; 2. Private CAV + Pricing; 3. Private CAV + ZEV; 4. Shared CAV; 5. Shared CAV + Pricing; 6. Shared CAV + ZEV. Impacts of the introduction of CAVs across the transportation system are quantitatively estimated. The results indicate that the mode shares of public transit and in-state air travel will likely sharply decrease, while total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and emissions will likely increase, because of the relative convenience of CAVs. The results also show that VMT could be substantially affected by a modification in auto travel costs. This means that the implementation of pricing strategies and congestion pricing policies, together with policies that support the deployment of shared and electric CAVs, could help reduce tailpipe pollutant emissions in future scenarios.