Recipe for a scenario: Moving from vision to actionable pathways towards sustainable futures

Abstract

In this paper we present an overview of future-oriented research in sustainability science and place-based research and offer a tool for researchers and community partners to use to guide participatory scenario planning activities that result in actionable steps toward achieving sustainable futures. Within place-based community-engaged research projects, future-oriented methods, such as visioning and participatory scenario planning, have been increasingly utilized as an approach to integrate diverse voices and foster positive change. However, this emerging literature contains some overlapping concepts and approaches that require clarification before adoption. We review common definitions of scenarios, visions, and participatory scenario planning; benefits and challenges of conducting a participatory scenario planning process in place-based research; and three actionable frameworks (Three Horizons, Nature Futures Framework, Sustainable Futures Scenarios) that can inform participatory scenario planning. We then highlight gaps in the literature regarding how to conduct a participatory scenario planning process and introduce a tool named “Recipe for a Scenario” to guide the facilitation of scenarios workshops and co-create actionable pathways towards desirable futures. Our tool (and accompanying workbook that structures a scenarios workshop) supports cross-disciplinary community-engaged projects focused on bringing about positive change in a medium-term timeframe (approximately 20 years) to support more sustainable human-environment dynamics.