Development and External Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model to Identify Nondiabetic Hyperglycemia and Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes: Diabetes Risk Assessment in Dentistry Score (DDS)

Author:

Yonel Z.1ORCID,Kocher T.2,Chapple I.L.C.1,Dietrich T.1ORCID,Völzke H.34,Nauck M.35,Collins G.6ORCID,Gray L.J.7,Holtfreter B.2

Affiliation:

1. Periodontal Research Group, School of Dentistry, College of Medical and Dental Science, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK

2. Department of Restorative Dentistry, Periodontology, Endodontology, and Preventive and Paediatric Dentistry, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany

3. German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany

4. Department of Study of Health in Pomerania/Clinical-Epidemiological Research, Institute for Community Medicine, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany

5. Institute for Laboratory Medicine and Clinical Chemistry, University Medicine Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany

6. Centre for Statistics in Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford UK

7. Department of Health Sciences, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester, UK

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a score for use in dental settings to identify those at risk of undiagnosed nondiabetic hyperglycemia (NDH) or type 2 diabetes (T2D). The Studies of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) project comprises 2 representative population-based cohort studies conducted in northeast Germany. SHIP-TREND-0, 2008 to 2012 (the development data set) had 3,339 eligible participants, with 329 having undiagnosed NDH or T2D. Missing data were replaced using multiple imputation. Potential covariates were selected for inclusion in the model using backward elimination. Heuristic shrinkage was used to reduce overfitting, and the final model was adjusted for optimism. We report the full model and a simplified paper-based point-score system. External validation of the model and score employed an independent data set comprising 2,359 participants with 357 events. Predictive performance, discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were assessed. The final model included age, sex, body mass index, smoking status, first-degree relative with diabetes, presence of a dental prosthesis, presence of mobile teeth, history of periodontal treatment, and probing pocket depths ≥5 mm as well as prespecified interaction terms. In SHIP-TREND-0, the model area under the curve (AUC) was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69, 0.75), calibration in the large was −0.025. The point score AUC was 0.69 (95% CI 0.65, 0.72), with sensitivity of 77.0 (95% CI 76.8, 77.2), specificity of 51.5 (95% CI 51.4, 51.7), negative predictive value of 94.5 (95% CI 94.5, 94.6), and positive predictive value of 17.0 (95% CI 17.0, 17.1). External validation of the point score gave an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66, 0.71), sensitivity of 79.2 (95% CI 79.0, 79.4), specificity of 49.9 (95% CI 49.8, 50.00), negative predictive value 91.5 (95% CI 91.5, 91.6), and positive predictive value of 25.9 (95% CI 25.8, 26.0). A validated prediction model involving dental variables can identify NDH or undiagnosed T2DM. Further studies are required to validate the model for different European populations.

Funder

NIHR and DiabetesUK

NIHR Applied Research Collaboration East Midlands

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

General Dentistry

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