Deglobalization and Resilience: A Historical Perspective

Abstract

The paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate shifts from globalization to deglobalization, presenting a novel economic theory grounded in recent data. It identifies two mechanisms driving structural deglobalization: escalating costs and diminishing benefits at the national level, hindering redistribution efforts and the challenge to sustain global public goods due to waning economic hegemony. The analysis integrates perspectives from international economics, history, hegemonic stability theory and world system theory through narrative review, descriptive statistics and econometric analyses. The multimethod examination emphasizes the complexities of deglobalization, involving international relations, history and economics. Democracy and trade composition emerge as significant factors influencing deglobalization, with varying impacts across historical contexts. Despite this, the resilience of world trade to deglobalization appears to have increased over time. The study underscores the necessity of blending methodologies from different disciplines for a comprehensive understanding of deglobalization and proposes avenues for further research in this complex, multidimensional phenomenon.