Estimation of the Probability That Guillain-Barre Syndrome was Caused by the Swine Flu Vaccine: US Experience (1976–77)

Abstract

A statistical method was presented for determining the probability that cases of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS) among residents of the United States and Puerto Rico who participated in the 1976–77 swine flu vaccine programme were due to the vaccine. It was determined that the vaccine (A/New Jersey) was the most likely cause of GBS if the onset was within five weeks after vaccination. From the sixth to the tenth week after vaccination, the association was unlikely. After the tenth week, the association between the vaccine and GBS was negative.