Risk Analysis of Quarantine Station Performance: A Case Study of the Importation of Equine Infectious Anemia Virus-Infected Horses into California

Author:

Carpenter Tim E.1,McBride Michael D.2,Hird David W.1

Affiliation:

1. Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, CA 95616

2. US Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service/Veterinary Services, Sacramento, CA 95827

Abstract

We examined the risk of importing and mistakenly releasing equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV)-infected horses into California. A computer simulation model was constructed to evaluate current and alternative quarantine station procedures; 150,000 iterations were performed to simulate 15 different scenarios of 10,000 horses imported into the state over a 14-year period. Simulation results showed that under current conditions of low EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, increasing the quarantine period would not decrease the number of EIAV-infected horses mistakenly released from quarantine. In a worst case scenario of high EIAV prevalence in exporting countries, the model predicted 10 EIAV-infected horses would be imported, of these 1 or none would escape detection and would be released mistakenly if quarantine duration were 3 or 14 days, respectively. This model may be applied to other quarantine station situations for evaluating the importation risk for EIAV and other diseases.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

General Veterinary

Reference18 articles.

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