Prediction model for anastomotic leakage after laparoscopic rectal cancer resection

Abstract

Objective This study was performed to identify risk factors for anastomotic leakage (AL) and combine these factors to create a prediction model for the risk of AL after laparoscopic rectal cancer resection. Methods This retrospective study involved 185 patients with rectal cancer who underwent laparoscopic resection from March 2012 to February 2017. Five risk factors were analyzed by multivariate analysis. A prediction model was established by combining the risk factors from the multivariate analysis, and the accuracy of the model was evaluated by a receiver operating characteristic curve. Results The overall AL rate was 17.84%. The multivariate analysis identified the following independent risk factors for AL: high body mass index (odds ratio [OR], 3.009; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.127–7.125), preoperative radiochemotherapy (OR, 3.778; 95% CI, 1.168–12.219), larger tumor size (OR, 2.710; 95% CI, 1.119–6.562), and longer surgical time (OR, 2.476; 95% CI, 1.033–5.932). We established a prediction model that can evaluate the risk of AL by determining the predictive probability. The area under the curve for the model’s predictive performance was 0.70 (95% CI, 0.598–0.795). Conclusion A prediction model was created to predict the risk of AL after laparoscopic rectal cancer resection.