A Risk Score for Predicting Post-traumatic Stress Disorder in Adults in a Chinese Earthquake Area

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify risk factors for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and develop a risk score model for predicting PTSD in adults in a Chinese earthquake area. Methods: Questionnaires covering demographic information, earthquake experience and social support were administered to subjects experiencing a major earthquake. The PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version questionnaire was used for PTSD diagnosis. Subjects were randomly assigned to training (70%) or validation (30%) subsets. A risk score model for predicting PTSD risk was established, based on logistic regression of PTSD risk factors that were significant on univariate analysis of the training data. Results: In total, 9556 subjects completed questionnaires; PTSD prevalence was 4.5%. Divorced or widowed status, various adverse earthquake events and low levels of social support were identified as risk factors for PTSD. When tested in the validation dataset, the risk score model had good discriminative power and a good fit between predicted and observed values. Conclusions: The risk score shows an acceptable predictive value and may be useful for early prediction of PTSD, in Chinese earthquake areas.