Nomogram based on immune scores for predicting the survival of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Objective To explore the relationship between immune scores and prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and construct a corresponding clinical prediction model. Methods The present research was a retrospective cohort study. We obtained the clinical information and immune scores of 137 patients with ESCC from The Cancer Genome Atlas database, and a Cox proportional risk model was used to construct the clinical prediction model. The concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate model performance and prediction accuracy. Results Patients with a high immune score (> −121.4) showed a worse prognosis than those with a low immune score (< −645.8; hazard ratio=3.743, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.385–10.115, P=0.009). The concordance index of the predictive model was 0.733 (95% CI=0.655–0.812). The calibration curve showed that the 3- and 5-year overall survival rates predicted by the model were highly consistent with the observed values. The NRI and IDI for the 3-year overall survival indicated that the model with the immune scores was superior for classifying the risk probability and distinguishing cases. Conclusion Immune scores may be an independent predictor of prognosis in patients with ESCC.