Schizophrenic soothers

Abstract

How can the international community influence belligerents in internal armed conflict to move towards peace? Research on influence strategies in international relations commonly stresses the importance of a combined ‘carrot-and-sticks’ approach, yet little is known about how this mixed strategy is best applied in the context of internal armed conflict. The article addresses this question by developing a theoretical framework exploring the conditions under which the mixed approach is successful in influencing conflict actors and by focusing specifically on non-state actors. It is argued that the effectiveness of the contrast strategy in dealing with non-state actors depends on the balance between the ‘good cop’ approach and the ‘bad cop’ approach, the perceptions of the targets and contextual adoption of the sequencing of strategies. We apply this framework to the case of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka between 2002 and 2008, when the international community’s initial success later turned into a failed attempt to influence the LTTE in the direction of respect for human rights, in ending the violation of the ceasefire and in preventing a return to the battlefield.