Development of a polygenic risk score to improve detection of peripheral artery disease

Abstract

Introduction: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a major cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, yet timely diagnosis is elusive. Larger genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have now provided the ability to evaluate whether genetic data, in the form of genome-wide polygenic risk scores (PRS), can help improve our ability to identify patients at high risk of having PAD. Methods: Using summary statistic data from the largest PAD GWAS from the Million Veteran Program, we developed PRSs with genome data from UK Biobank. We then evaluated the clinical utility of adding the best-performing PRS to a PAD clinical risk score. Results: A total of 487,320 participants (5759 PAD cases) were included in our final genetic analysis. Compared to participants in the lowest 10% of PRS, those in the highest decile had 3.1 higher odds of having PAD (95% CI, 3.06–3.21). Additionally, a PAD PRS was associated with increased risk of having coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, and cerebrovascular disease. The PRS significantly improved a clinical risk model (Net Reclassification Index = 0.07, p < 0.001), with most of the performance seen in downgrading risk of controls. Combining clinical and genetic data to detect risk of PAD resulted in a model with an area under the curve of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75–0.77). Conclusion: We demonstrate that a genome-wide PRS can discriminate risk of PAD and other cardiovascular diseases. Adding a PAD PRS to clinical risk models may help improve detection of prevalent, but undiagnosed disease.