The burden of serious health-related suffering among cancer decedents: Global projections study to 2060

Abstract

Background: Palliative care improves outcomes for people with cancer, but in many countries access remains poor. Understanding future needs is essential for effective health system planning in response to global policy. Aim: To project the burden of serious health-related suffering associated with death from cancer to 2060 by age, gender, cancer type and World Bank income region. Design: Population-based projections study. Global projections of palliative care need were derived by combining World Health Organization cancer mortality projections (2016–2060) with estimates of serious health-related suffering among cancer decedents. Results: By 2060, serious health-related suffering will be experienced by 16.3 million people dying with cancer each year (compared to 7.8 million in 2016). Serious health-related suffering among cancer decedents will increase more quickly in low income countries (407% increase 2016–2060) compared to lower-middle, upper-middle and high income countries (168%, 96% and 39% increase 2016-2060, respectively). By 2060, 67% of people who die with cancer and experience serious health-related suffering will be over 70 years old, compared to 47% in 2016. In high and upper-middle income countries, lung cancer will be the single greatest contributor to the burden of serious health-related suffering among cancer decedents. In low and lower-middle income countries, breast cancer will be the single greatest contributor. Conclusions: Many people with cancer will die with unnecessary suffering unless there is expansion of palliative care integration into cancer programmes. Failure to do this will be damaging for the individuals affected and the health systems within which they are treated.