Estimating HIV incidence in eastern European country of Georgia: 2010–2012

Abstract

The knowledge of HIV incidence is essential to better understand patterns of HIV transmission. We estimated HIV incidence over 2010–2012 in the eastern European country of Georgia. Mathematical modeling using Spectrum software and assay-based recent infection testing algorithm were applied. The study included 1155 HIV patients newly diagnosed in 2010–2012 (84% of total diagnoses). Of them, 231 were determined to be recently infected on the recent infection testing algorithm. The proportion of recent cases did not differ between 2010, 2011 and 2012 (20.4% vs. 19.4% vs. 20.2%, p = 0.94). Both study methods derived comparable estimates ranging from 0.2 to 0.3%, which is up to twice as high as rates of new diagnosis reported in the same period. Despite the relatively stable HIV incidence over 2010–2012, the epidemic continues to grow because of the increasing gap between HIV-infected and diagnosed persons. Increased efforts are needed to reduce the number of people with undiagnosed HIV.