The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games

Abstract

This paper compares the predictive accuracy and efficiency of college football point spreads for regular and bowl games. We find that the betting line spread is more accurate as a predictor of the eventual winner for college football games during the regular season than for the bowl games. Although the betting market is mostly efficient with regard to the favorite covering the spread, we do find several inefficiencies in the betting market for regular and bowl games within transaction costs. Specifically, we find the betting market to be an inefficient processor of momentum effects, particularly negative momentum.