Domestic Competitive Imbalance as the “Price” of Surprise in the Champions League

Abstract

The opinions regarding the impact of the domestic league's competitive balance (CB) on continental club competition sporting success are divided. Through the data of the last 18 seasons (2004/05–2021/22) and 576 games, we have examined whether the teams from a more balanced domestic league can achieve more unexpected results in the Champions League group stage. The current study aims to contribute to previously published literature by applying the market value-based surprise index. The results of panel logistic regression models suggest that a lower domestic league's CB in a given season can support teams to overperform in the international field in the same season.