Should I Stay or Should I Go Pro? Early NFL Draft Entry by NCAA FBS Underclassmen

Abstract

Some college players face the tradeoff between continuing their education and entering the draft and forfeiting college eligibility. Little empirical research focuses on this “stay or go pro” decision. We analyze early draft entry decisions made by college football underclassmen with remaining eligibility over the 2007/08-2018/19 seasons. Regression results support both the human capital explanation for early draft entry in that players acquiring more human capital in the previous season by playing in more games increases the likelihood of early entry and the option value perspective in that playing on a more successful team increases the likelihood of early entry.