Competitive Balance and the Away Goals Rule During Extra Time

Abstract

The Union of European Football Associations is currently reviewing the away goals rule during extra time in the knockout rounds of the Champions League. We model extra time as a two-stage contest. Assuming a home-field advantage we analyze the effect of the away goals rule on the competitive balance between teams. Our analysis suggests that the away goals rule levels the competitive imbalance introduced by the home-field advantage in the quarter and semi-finals and that in the round of 16 weaker teams should play first home and then away so that they benefit from the away goals rule during extra time.