Competitive Balance and Match Uncertainty in Grand-Slam Tennis

Abstract

This article tests whether the increase in seeded players in tennis grand-slam tournaments from 16 to 32 in 2001 led to decreased competitive balance. In doing so, two alternative measures of competitive balance for single-elimination tournaments are proposed based on the performance of seeded players. Likewise, the differences in competitive balance due to gender and court surface are also analyzed. Additionally, using data from tennis grand-slam matches from 2005 to 2008, this article analyzed the determinants of ex post match level uncertainty with probit models.