The Role of Fatigue in NBA Wagering Markets: The Surprising ‘‘Home Disadvantage Situation’’

Abstract

Factors related to the margin of victory in the National Basketball Association (NBA), in terms of both the actual margin of victory and the projected margin of victory as reflected in point spreads, have been analyzed in many studies. This study investigates whether the NBA wagering market appropriately accounts for the differences in team fatigue when setting point spreads. Prior studies have found that a key component of the well-documented home court advantage is rest. We find that, over a 19-year period, the home team performed poorly against the spread when playing the second of back-to-back games, while the visiting team had 1 or 2 days rest. This poor performance was magnified when the home team had traveled one or two time zones in an easterly direction between the back-to-back games.