How Did the AFL National Draft Mitigate Perverse Incentives?

Abstract

Similar to the National Basketball Association and the National Hockey League, the reverse-order nature of the Australian Football League (AFL) national player draft has often times been speculated to induce tanking. However, a prior study found that there is no evidence of tanking within the AFL. This study tests this assumption under four periods, namely, pre-2006, 2006-2011, 2012-2014, and post-2014, to reflect the changes in rules. While the results concur with the previous study, the behavior of teams in the priority pick era of the draft finds evidence to the contrary.